Czarina Games

Serious Games Online Research and Development from Dr. Alicia Sanchez

Automation Bias – Cognitive Bias 9

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After far too long away doing some personal things, I wanted to come back with a Cognitive Bias we could really sink our teeth into!  Today we’re going to talk about a very timely Cognitive Bias, the Automation Effect.

The Automation Effect suggest that we are more likely to believe information that comes from an automated decision-making system than from other sources even when those sources are correct. Oh yeah. This one is going to be a problem for us. There are lots of situations in which we rely on automated information to be absolutely correct. When we look at our phones, we 100% believe the time on the front. This is because over time it has been consistently accurate and because we understand that the time on your phone is likely coming from a satellite which seems pretty reliable. If the time on our phones became unreliable, then we would be less likely to believe it, but I think we have cracked the nut on phone time. It’s a simple transmission of information, its not an automated decision-making system. The real danger point comes when we think about the future of our decision-making systems, in which all arrows point towards AI.

When our phone autocorrects us, we immediately notice and often get annoyed. Nobody has ever wanted to say ducking, have they?  The autocorrect system on our phones is an automated decision support/making system; but we don’t often suffer the Automation bias when it comes to full word autocorrect “fails”, likely because we know what our intent was. Sometimes we might second guess it if it corrects spelling to something that might be correct but is unfamiliar to us, but we generally know what we are trying to say and know when the system has made an error.

Now let’s move onto really complex systems like airplane autopilot systems. An autopilot system takes in a ton of information from various systems. Speed, altitude, navigation and many others. The autopilot FLIES the plane. Does this not freak anyone else out?  But based on all of the information that it receives; the autopilot does a great job!  We don’t let it take off or land, but it probably could. And this is how these problems get started. We trust autopilot. We couldn’t possible calculate wind speed, trajectory, etc. in our heads without the help of the systems that feed the autopilot. We expect it to take perfect information and make perfect decisions because unlike human beings, computers are generally infallible. This reliance can lead to misuse and lack of attention to other cues that might be important, but it’s easy to imagine disregarding those, especially when information comes from highly more fallible humans.

Now let’s think about our increased reliance on AI. I’m hoping you all watch Black Mirror and have seen how fun science fiction becomes when we begin relying more and more on automated decision-making systems. The problem is, that when we trust these systems more than we trust humans…. well…. trouble. AI systems have not yet to date actually accomplished their ultimate goals. Artificial Intelligence today is only as good as the humans who have programmed it. For example, a computer who is taught to add numbers cannot subtract them unless its been specifically taught to do so. Everything computers can do is still controlled by humans. Totally fallible humans. Sure, they can take in much more information than a human and process it. But, without common sense and a human paying attention to understand the nuance, AI is not yet infallible. So, let’s not fall for this Automation Bias quite yet.

Bandwagon Effect – Cognitive Bias Series 8

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This week is feeling pretty deep. I’m off the heels of the Defense Entrepreneur Forum (DEF) annual conference where I was submerged in food and thought. I’ve also been thinking a lot about organizational culture. While I was considering which cognitive bias, I would like to tackle this week, the Bandwagon Effect practically jumped off the page at me.

The Bandwagon Effect is characterized by people being more likely to adopt beliefs when they are adopted by others. The origins of the Bandwagon Effect seem to be focused on elections starting in the 80’s. Those origins suggest that people may alter their voting decisions based on the decisions of others, for example, as voting happens in real time in different time zones etc. The Bandwagon Effect is leveraged highly in marketing campaigns related to politics and everyday consumer behaviors. The premise is the more people think that not eating Gluten is bad, the more people will join in that thought.

I think this might be attributable to several theories of conformity in our lives, but I think there is also an element of self-doubt and lack of resilience that goes into this. For example, if everyone is saying Gluten is bad, they must know something I don’t, right?  Gluten therefore must be inherently evil because if its wasn’t why would so many people say it is?  Its obvious how powerful the Bandwagon Effect can be in marketing, but what about the workplace?  This is where things get a little sideways.

What happens with when the Bandwagon Effect starts to impact our work culture. We’ve seen bad ideas gain traction because they are subscribed to by senior leadership. Sometimes it feels like people abandon all common sense when this happens. This is almost impossible to avoid. But what if we started using the Bandwagon Effect for good?

Its easy for workplace culture to become stale, complacent and filled with bad ideas and bad people. As we have all witnessed before, its not the people who drain an organizations culture who leave, it’s the people who have the wherewithal to see that they are on a sinking ship. But what if we applied the Bandwagon Effect to positive messages. I’m a tad jaded by nature, so I almost never look at the positive side of the coin, so in this I see an opportunity!

What if our senior leadership consistently messaged the culture we want?  What if there were punishments for those who were incapable of conforming to a culture of inclusion and diversity not just in the racial and gender components, but inclusion and diversity in ideas, in leadership, in technology. What if we all got on the bandwagon to change and be better?  What if the Bandwagon Effect spread and allowed us to be our most authentic, creative, and knowledgeable selves?  What if we started a bandwagon of focusing on our warfighter?  What if we started a bandwagon for being more willing to move away from the way we learned and embraced the way technological advances have improved the ability to provide training and education?  What if our senior leadership consistently made our culture a priority? What if we started with getting right inside before we tried to be right for the outside?

THIS is the bandwagon I want to be on. This is the bandwagon we need. So, lets get our favorite Oregon Trail wagons rallied and let’s not die of dysentery this time. I’m starting a bandwagon. Who wants in?

Dateline Obsessions

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This has been a super busy week, and next week isn’t looking much better, so I wanted to chat about something fun this week. My obsession with Dateline. Or 20/20. Or 48 Hours. Or Forensic Files. Basically any real life crime show involving murder. I love it. I cannot get enough of it. I spend way to much time watching those shows. While I’m working I usually have them on YouTube just playing in the background. I literally almost cannot fall asleep before someone is murdered.

So yeah. That is weird, but it gets weirder. I cannot tolerate sad shows or movies. Zero tolerance. I have enough reasons to cry in this life. I certainly don’t need anyone or anything adding fuel to that fire. So, while I avoid ANYTHING sad, I must watch EVERYTHING horrifying. Which got me to thinking. Why don’t I think people getting murdered is sad? How can this dichotomy exist inside me?

I have often struggled with showing emotions. My family and friends joke that my heart, much like the Grinch’s is two sizes too small. But this seems to be taking it to a new level. I’m not saying I would kill you, hide your body and get away with it. But I’m pretty sure I could.

It makes me wonder about violence in video games promoting violent behavior, which I think is absolute bullshit, btw. But do I accept that we have been desensitized to violence in media? Sure. Then why haven’t we been desensitized to sad stuff? Or maybe we have…..

Bottom line, I’m hoping I never find myself in a situation where I’m trying to cover up a crime. Maybe I wish I had gone into forensics or police work. Maybe I just find it fascinating how truly fucked up the world can be. No matter what, I’m not watching Dumbo unless at gun point.

The Games Czar

Czarina Games was founded by Dr. Alicia Sanchez. A graduate of the University of Central Florida’s Modeling and Simulation program, Alicia is internationally known as a serious games expert.

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